How will Palestine look like after Abbas?
How will Palestine look like after Abbas?
For this „Fortnightly Forecast“ we are asking: what does a future after Mahmoud Abbas in Israel and Palestine look like? In this text, we will speak of the state of Palestine and of Abbas (and potential successors) as president of Palestine. We feel this is appropriate as a simple statement of fact and do not comment on the question of international recognition of that state.
For background: Abbas has been in power as the president of the State of Palestine and the Palestinian National Authority for almost 17 years, following the death of Yassir Arafat in November 2004. He won a presidential election in 2005, which, despite being criticized for not being entirely free and fair, has given him wide recognition as the legitimate head. His original term, however, expired in 2009 and no election has been held since to renew his mandate. Following Hamas' victory in the 2006 parliamentary election, fights between Hamas and Fatah broke out which resulted in Hamas taking control of Gaza. In the territory still under Abbas' control, the situation has since been remarkably stable. While no major progress has been made in negotiations, his government cooperates with Israel on key security questions and the area has not seen the level of violent conflict that has occurred in Gaza.
Abbas' rule, in other words, represents a status quo that has been in place for a very long time now and a key question is: what will happen when this reign comes to an end? Possible scenarios include a major escalation of violence or a Hamas takeover in the Westbank on one end, and renewed peace talks, or even a final agreement with Israel on the other.
Before we get to the actual predictions, a word about what we are NOT trying to predict - we do not try to predict the exact timing of Abbas leaving office. At this point, it is widely accepted that he is unlikely to simply step down while in good health. He will most likely only vacate the office by either dying or becoming seriously incapacitated, therefore trying to predict the exact timing of either event is both a bit macabre and mostly futile. Absent inside medical info, we can also add little value beyond what any actuary table will tell you.
Nor do we try to predict the individual who will succeed Abbas (if any). Again, this is the type of prediction we will happily leave to those with more inside knowledge of the internal power politics of Palestine.
What we try instead is to map out possible scenarios and identify key proxies which can be predicted in a rigorous manner.
After Mahmoud Abbas vacates the office of President of Palestine, will elections for a successor be held in BOTH the Westbank/East Jerusalem and Gaza within 12 months?
Median forecast 36% Range 33-70%
Holding elections in both Hamas-controlled Gaza and the Westbank has proven very difficult in the past years. Elections were planned several times but never happened. In addition to Hamas and Fatah not trusting each other and fearing interference from each other, the situation is complicated by Israel not allowing votes to be cast in East Jerusalem. On the other hand, the law clearly demands new elections within 60 days of the office being vacated - simply ignoring this would be a massive political risk, especially because popular pressure for new elections would almost certainly be higher when there is no president with any claim to legitimacy. Forecasters point out that outbreaks of violence could be used as a pretext to cancel or (indefinitely) postpone elections.
If elections are not held in both Gaza and the Westbank/East Jerusalem, there might not be any actual successor of Abbas. A successor from the ranks of the current administration who does not exert any control over Gaza and has no claim to being the president of all of Palestine would cement the de-facto partition of Palestine.
After Mahmoud Abbas vacates the office of President of Palestine, will there be violent clashes in the Westbank and East Jerusalem causing more than 100 fatalities within 6 months?
Median forecast 40% Range 10-60%
Direct clashes between Hamas and Fatah are only one possible scenario here. Others include fighting with Israeli forces, PNA security personnel clashing with protesters, and other constellations. One forecaster points out that violence on this scale has only occurred once in the Westbank in the 17 years since the end of the 2nd Intifada in 2004, namely during the so-called “Knife Intifada” of 2015-2016. A base rate for such an escalation, therefore, is below 10% for a given year. However, in Gaza, fighting between Hamas and Fatah in 2006-2007 also cost hundreds of lives. Others point out that smaller clashes still claiming dozens of lives have happened several times and a further escalation beyond the threshold of 100 deaths is easily possible.
Several commenters point out that, should a scheduled election be postponed or canceled, an escalation of violence between Hamas and Fatah becomes a lot more likely, as Hamas would almost certainly protest such a decision. Popular outrage might also erupt against Israeli security forces.
Will the successor of Mahmoud Abbas as the President of Palestine meet with the head of state or government of any member state of the Arab League within 12 months of assuming office?
Median forecast 80% Range 60-85%
This question looks at the recognition of a successor by important neighbors and the degree of cooperation with them. Most forecasters agree that such meetings are likely, as cooperation on various issues is crucial for the Palestinian leadership on many fronts, not the least of which is that they receive substantial funds from some of these states. Meetings like this have happened regularly over the past years.
Forecasters point out that at least one such meeting happening is likely regardless of who the successor is because the states of the Arab League are supporting different Palestinian factions. While a more status-quo-oriented successor may meet with, say, the Jordanian government, a more confrontative one may receive support from e.g. Qatar and hold meetings there.
Will the successor of Mahmoud Abbas as the President of Palestine meet with the incumbent US President within 12 months of assuming office?
Median forecast 60% Range 5-80%
Next, we look at the chance of a meeting with the US president. Such meetings are rarer but have occurred somewhat regularly - Abbas met George W. Bush, Barack Obama, and Donald Trump. If a meeting does not happen, the most likely reason is that the successor is significantly less well-liked in Washington than Abbas was.
Of course, a meeting could mean many things. It could be a fairly uneventful work meeting - most of the past few meetings would clearly fall into that category. But it might also represent a renewed push by a US administration for a lasting peace agreement with Israel.
Will the successor of Mahmoud Abbas as the President of Palestine meet with the incumbent Israeli Prime Minister within 12 months of assuming office?
Median Forecast 30% Range 25-50%
This question covers the optimistic scenario of Abbas’ successor being able to revive the long-stagnating peace process. Obviously, a meeting by itself does not mean peace, but it would be the first step in that direction. We intentionally avoided questions with very fuzzy resolution criteria about what exactly constitutes a peace accord.
The last time Abbas met with an incumbent Israeli PM was in 2008. A meeting with Netanyahu, who was in office from 2009 to 2021 never materialized. This demonstrates that there are significant hurdles - neither side wants to hold a high-level meeting that produces nothing and could lead to more frustration, especially among Palestinians.
No forecaster makes a strong case for a meeting happening. Comments mostly point out uncertainty, especially about who will fill both offices at the time. One commenter points out that Abbas bears at least some responsibility for the lack of such meetings over the past 13 years, so a successor might bring change on that count as well.
Conclusion
Escalation of violence and a deepening division between the Westbank and Gaza are scenarios to be taken seriously, but they are by no means inevitable. The question is if someone aware of these risks of huge political turbulence gathering over Palestine’s future will successfully act to prevent the catastrophe. We cannot tell you with any satisfactory precision when Mahmoud Abbas will vacate his post. However, we believe that if no actions are taken before it happens, it will be too late to stop the chaos. Changing a course of events is much harder when the collision is imminent.